A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
